Best of me【Best,of,CER,Alpha】
时间：2019-04-18 03:23:01 来源：柠檬阅读网 本文已影响 人 
take profits on china dry bulk plays but hold container shipping positions
May 9, 2012
China shipping stocks declined sharply in advance of the April trade data announcement set for Thursday, which analysts expect will show a further slowdown in exports. Shipping companies are caught in the midst of what seems to be a long down-cycle, but slowing Chinese exports are not the major culprit. Instead, shippers are hindered by a huge overcapacity. Shipping rates must come down to resolve this imbalance, meaning there is a painful road ahead for shipping companies. Dry bulk stocks may be close to bottoming out as the segment has already felt the full force of low rates, but container stocks are still far from bottom. The descent may pick up as soon as there are signs that freight companies are beginning to push back on higher rates. The takeaway: Investors should consider taking profits on shorts of dry bulk shippers that are close to bottoming out, such as China Shipping Development (1138. HKG) and Pacific Basin Shipping (2343. HKG). But consider maintaining short positions in companies such as China COSCO Holdings (1919.HKG) and China Shipping Container Lines (2866. HKG) as container shippers appear to be set for further declines.
consider exiting esprit short as
turnaround plan takes hold
May 10, 2012
Shares in US-turned-Asian clothing retailer Esprit Holdings climbed as the company reported a rise in same-store sales in the third quarter. On February 29, CER Alpha suggested selling or shorting Esprit based on our skeptical view of the company’s turnaround plan, which had sent the stock upwards in the first two months of the year. The short position had recorded gains of roughly 20% since then, until today’s reversal that sent the stock up more than 5%. A rise in same-store sales, albeit small, may be just enough positive sentiment to send the stock up in the short-term. The company additionally recouped about US$90 million(HK$700 million) in a writeback after the cost of closing all its North American stores was less than expected. With that most painful part of the transition completed with better-than-expected results, Esprit is more likely to report a profit in the second half of the fiscal year. While a lack of cachet will likely keep Esprit from entering the ranks of the most popular brands, in China’s increasing consumerdriven economy, Esprit may be able to get a modest share of the growing retail pie. The takeaway: Investors should consider cashing in short positions in Esprit Holdings (0330.HKG) as upside risk returns with signs of a modest turnaround.
avoid dim sum bond issue, con
sider buying rqfii etfs as china
raises quotas
April 19, 2012
HSBC is offering the first offshore yuan- denominated bond outside of Hong Kong that will raise US$317 million(RMB2 billion). The latest HSBC issue is undoubtedly a good sign for the international use of the renminbi, but that does not make it a good investment. First allowed in 2009, dim sum bonds - as they are commonly called - were until recently the primary investment outlet for companies that receive offshore renminbi when settling cross-border trade. But in December 2011, the Renminbi Qualified Foreign Institutional Investor (RQFII) program was launched allowing those yuan funds to be invested back in the mainland. Earlier this month, the China Securities Regulatory Commission increased the quota on the program by US$7.94 billion (RMB50 billion). That considerable figure is likely to staunch demand for dim sum bonds and the funds that invest in them as investors put their money into RQFII funds instead. Since the quota was announced, new RQFII funds have not yet been launched, but this is likely the area to watch for investment opportunities. The takeway: Investors might consider avoiding or selling plays on dim sum bonds, such as the PowerShares Chinese Dim Sum Bond Portfolio ETF (DSUM.NYSE) and the Guggenheim Yuan Bond ETF (RMB. NYSE), in favor of investing in RQFII ETFs once they launch in Hong Kong.
